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[2014-11-11. NEJM Korea thyroid cancer "epidemic" - screening and overdiagnosis]
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Korea thyroid cancer "epidemic" - screening and overdiagnosis
The Republic of Korea has provided national health insurance to its 50 million citizens since the 1980s. Although health care expenditures in South Korea's single-payer system are relatively low accounting for 7.6% of the country's gross domestic product - the system is technologically intensive; among the countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, it ranks second in acute care beds per million population, fifth in computed tomography (CT) scanners per million population, and fourth in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines per million population. The country also has a well-developed data infrastructure for both vital statistics (Statistics Korea) and cancer incidence (Korean Central Cancer Registry).
In 1999, the government initiated a national screening program for cancer and other common diseases. This program now provides screening for breast, cervical, colon, gastric, and hepatic cancers free of charge or, for people with above-average income, for a small copayment. Although thyroid-cancer screening was not included in the program, providers frequently chose to offer screening with ultrasonography as an inexpensive add-on for $30 to $50. Many hospitals now market ¡°health checkup¡± programs that include thyroid-cancer screening with ultrasonography, in addition to more technologically intensive exams (such as MRI and positron-emission tomography;CT), and many general practitioners have ultrasonography machines in their offices and commonly scan the thyroid. Both the government and the media have frequently extolled the virtues of early cancer detection.
Earlier this year, a few physicians presented a different perspective, expressing concern about overdiagnosis of thyroid cancer and suggesting that screening be banned. Major newspapers picked up the story, running headlines asking "Is thyroid cancer overdiagnosed?" There was also widespread broadcast coverage, including special programs devoted to the issue on all three of the country's major television networks. Yet because it is so challenging to adequately explain why early diagnosis and treatment of a common type of cancer could be problematic, thyroid-cancer screening continues to grow in popularity.
Vital statistics and cancer-registry data for South Korea illustrate the effect of screening. Thyroid-cancer incidence increased slowly during the 1990s, then rapidly after the turn of the century (see line graphThyroid-Cancer Incidence and Related Mortality in South Korea, 1993-2011.). In 2011, the rate of thyroid-cancer diagnoses was 15 times that observed in 1993. This entire increase can be attributed to the detection of papillary thyroid cancer. Furthermore, despite the dramatic increase in incidence, mortality from thyroid cancer remains stable a combination that is pathognomonic for overdiagnosis.
Variation in thyroid-cancer incidence across the country's 16 administrative regions may be explained by screening penetration (see scatter plotPenetration of Thyroid-Cancer Screening (2008-2009) and Incidence of Thyroid Cancer (2009) in the 16 Administrative Regions of South Korea.). In 2010, the Korean Community Health Survey (the government's annual nationwide health survey) asked adults older than 19 years of age whether they had been screened for thyroid cancer during the previous 2 years. There was a strong correlation between the proportion of the population screened in a region in 2008 and 2009 and the regional incidence of thyroid cancer in 2009. Although the aggregate correlation could be vulnerable to the ecologic fallacy, the finding of significant positive correlations in each of eight age- and sex-based groups suggests that the finding is more robust.
Thyroid cancer is now the most common type of cancer diagnosed in South Korea. More than 40,000 people in the country were diagnosed with the disease in 2011 - a figure that is more than 100 times the number of people who die from thyroid cancer, which for the past decade has been between 300 and 400 each year. Virtually all the people diagnosed with thyroid cancer are treated: roughly two thirds undergo radical thyroidectomy, and one third undergo subtotal thyroidectomy. The tumors being excised are getting smaller - at one center, the proportion of patients undergoing surgery for a tumor measuring less than 1 cm in diameter increased from 14% in 1995 to 56% 10 years later.2 Despite guidelines recommending against evaluation and surgery for tumors less than 0.5 cm in diameter, one quarter of surgical patients now have tumors that fall into this category.
Thyroid-cancer surgery has substantial consequences for patients. Most must receive lifelong thyroid-replacement therapy, and a few have complications from the procedure. An analysis of insurance claims for more than 15,000 Koreans who underwent surgery showed that 11% had hypoparathyroidism and 2% had vocal-cord paralysis.
Pathologists have long recognized the existence of a substantial reservoir of subclinical thyroid cancer. In 1947, a report in the Journal pointed out the discrepancy between the frequent finding of thyroid cancer at autopsy and its rarity as a cause of death.4 It has been estimated that at least one third of adults harbor small papillary thyroid cancers, the vast majority of which will not produce symptoms during a person's lifetime.5 As the South Korean data show, all it takes to expose this reservoir is ultrasonographic screening.
The experience with thyroid-cancer screening in South Korea should serve as a cautionary tale for the rest of the world. During the past two decades, multiple countries have had a substantial increase in thyroid-cancer incidence without a concomitant increase in mortality. According to the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database maintained by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the rate of thyroid-cancer detection has more than doubled in France, Italy, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Israel, China, Australia, Canada, and the United States. The South Korean experience suggests that these countries are seeing just the tip of the thyroid-cancer iceberg - and that if they want to prevent their own ¡°epidemic,¡± they will need to discourage early thyroid-cancer detection.
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In conclusion, the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of the thyroid cancer screening by ultrasonography and the recommendation is that thyroid ultrasonography is not routinely recommended for healthy subjects.
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Á¦¸ñ: The science myths that will not die
ºÎÁ¦¸ñ:False beliefs and wishful thinking about the human experience are common. They are hurting people - and holding back science.
ÀúÀÚ: Megan Scudellari
In 1997, physicians in southwest Korea began to offer ultrasound screening for early detection of thyroid cancer. News of the programme spread, and soon physicians around the region began to offer the service. Eventually it went nationwide, piggybacking on a government initiative to screen for other cancers. Hundreds of thousands took the test for just US$30-50.
Across the country, detection of thyroid cancer soared, from 5 cases per 100,000 people in 1999 to 70 per 100,000 in 2011. Two-thirds of those diagnosed had their thyroid glands removed and were placed on lifelong drug regimens, both of which carry risks.
Such a costly and extensive public-health programme might be expected to save lives. But this one did not. Thyroid cancer is now the most common type of cancer diagnosed in South Korea, but the number of people who die from it has remained exactly the same - about 1 per 100,000. Even when some physicians in Korea realized this, and suggested that thyroid screening be stopped in 2014, the Korean Thyroid Association, a professional society of endocrinologists and thyroid surgeons, argued that screening and treatment were basic human rights.
In Korea, as elsewhere, the idea that the early detection of any cancer saves lives had become an unshakeable belief.
This blind faith in cancer screening is an example of how ideas about human biology and behaviour can persist among people - including scientists - even though the scientific evidence shows the concepts to be false. ¡°Scientists think they're too objective to believe in something as folklore-ish as a myth,¡± says Nicholas Spitzer, director of the Kavli Institute for Brain and Mind at the University of California, San Diego. Yet they do.
These myths often blossom from a seed of a fact - early detection does save lives for some cancers - and thrive on human desires or anxieties, such as a fear of death. But they can do harm by, for instance, driving people to pursue unnecessary treatment or spend money on unproven products. They can also derail or forestall promising research by distracting scientists or monopolizing funding. And dispelling them is tricky.
Scientists should work to discredit myths, but they also have a responsibility to try to prevent new ones from arising, says Paul Howard-Jones, who studies neuroscience and education at the University of Bristol, UK. ¡°We need to look deeper to understand how they come about in the first place and why they're so prevalent and persistent.¡±
Some dangerous myths get plenty of air time: vaccines cause autism, HIV doesn't cause AIDS. But many others swirl about, too, harming people, sucking up money, muddying the scientific enterprise - or simply getting on scientists' nerves. Here, Nature looks at the origins and repercussions of five myths that refuse to die.
Myth 1: Screening saves lives for all types of cancer
Regular screening might be beneficial for some groups at risk of certain cancers, such as lung, cervical and colon, but this isn't the case for all tests. Still, some patients and clinicians defend the ineffective ones fiercely.
Cancer: Missing the mark
The belief that early detection saves lives originated in the early twentieth century, when doctors realized that they got the best outcomes when tumours were identified and treated just after the onset of symptoms. The next logical leap was to assume that the earlier a tumour was found, the better the chance of survival. ¡°We've all been taught, since we were at our mother's knee, the way to deal with cancer is to find it early and cut it out,¡± says Otis Brawley, chief medical officer for the American Cancer Society.
But evidence from large randomized trials for cancers such as thyroid, prostate and breast has shown that early screening is not the lifesaver it is often advertised as. For example, a Cochrane review of five randomized controlled clinical trials totalling 341,342 participants found that screening did not significantly decrease deaths due to prostate cancer1.
¡°People seem to imagine the mere fact that you found a cancer so-called early must be a benefit. But that isn't so at all,¡± says Anthony Miller at the University of Toronto in Canada. Miller headed the Canadian National Breast Screening Study, a 25-year study of 89,835 women aged 40-59 years old that found that annual mammograms did not reduce mortality from breast cancer. That's because some tumours will lead to death irrespective of when they are detected and treated. Meanwhile, aggressive early screening has a slew of negative health effects. Many cancers grow slowly and will do no harm if left alone, so people end up having unnecessary thyroidectomies, mastectomies and prostatectomies. So on a population level, the benefits (lives saved) do not outweigh the risks (lives lost or interrupted by unnecessary treatment).
Still, individuals who have had a cancer detected and then removed are likely to feel that their life was saved, and these personal experiences help to keep the misconception alive. And oncologists routinely debate what ages and other risk factors would benefit from regular screening.
Focusing so much attention on the current screening tests comes at a cost for cancer research, says Brawley. ¡°In breast cancer, we've spent so much time arguing about age 40 versus age 50 and not about the fact that we need a better test,¡± such as one that could detect fast-growing rather than slow-growing tumours. And existing diagnostics should be rigorously tested to prove that they actually save lives, says epidemiologist John Ioannidis of the Stanford Prevention Research Center in California, who this year reported that very few screening tests for 19 major diseases actually reduced mortality.
Changing behaviours will be tough. Gilbert Welch at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice in Lebanon, New Hampshire, says that individuals would rather be told to get a quick test every few years than be told to eat well and exercise to prevent cancer. ¡°Screening has become an easy way for both doctor and patient to think they are doing something good for their health, but their risk of cancer hasn't changed at all.¡±
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